Bitcoin is only 13 years old, but the cryptocurrency has already seen its fair share in bear markets. The largest crypto token has seen a significant number of downturns. In 2011 there were crashes of up to 92% and in 2015 around 84%. This can now be a thing of the past.
“That is now a thing of the past”
Dan Morehead, the CEO of the crypto investment firm Pantera Capital, recently published the new edition of the Blockchain Letter. According to the article, brutal Bitcoin bear markets, with BTC falling by over 80%, are “now a thing of the past,” so future bear markets will be flatter.
Also, Bitcoin has entered the post-halving era. “I think we’re done with the four year halving cycle – and we’re off to the next pricing era, ”said Morehead.
Look at the table below.
As shown in this graph, the 4-year halving cycles saw
- A decent rally in the 477 days before that halving – 2.7x in this case.
- And then a bigger rally in the 410 days that followed – 7.2 times this time.
BTC price cycles
Morehead further added,
“We’ve updated the charts we’ve been using since 2014 – they show the major bull and bear markets. My feeling is that we completed the halving cycle in April. We had a period of temporary madness – when Chinese mining bans were viewed as negative and some people had turned blockchain ESG on their heads – and now we are in a new bull market. “
He also said that he has always advocated that the amplitude of price fluctuations decrease as the market becomes wider, more valuable and more institutional.
The following statistics further support Morehead’s argument and clearly show that drawdowns have become less and less harsh over the years.
The new price era will indeed provide much flatter bear runs, so less volatility in the future. He mean,
“Even though we’ve had two bear markets down 83%, I believe they are part of our past. Future bear markets will be flatter. The previous two were -61% and -54%.”
As can be seen from the graph attached below, BTC has actually had a wild ride since its inception. A ride with great ups and downs. However, this will no longer be the case, according to Morehead.
Aside from that, Morehead also mentioned that big bull runs would also stop.
“Unfortunately there is no free lunch. The downside is that we probably won’t see any of the 100-times-a-year rallies either. “
Even so, he remained undeterred in his bullish narrative about Bitcoin. No wonder he came to the conclusion: “The numbers coincide astonishingly” [-82%, -83%, -84%] on here. If it ever reaches -83% again, I’ll go ALL IN. “
Others within this domain shared different views on the bullish pursuit of the flagship token.