Central Bank Digital Currencies and The Emerging Markets: The Currency Substitution Challenge

In 2020, mobile payments totaled US$49 trillion in China, and four out of five transactions were online, with Alibaba’s Alipay (55 percent) and Tencent’s Tenpay (39 percent) at the helm of online payments. Because more than half of its population used mobile payments and it was the leading country in building a cashless society, China was ripe to adopt a DCEP. Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are electronic records or digital tokens that represent the fiat currencies of a nation. Just like paper bills, each CBDC is a store of value, mode of payment, and a unit of account. Unlike cryptocurrencies, CBDCs are centralized and regulated by the nation’s monetary authority and backed by monetary reserves such as gold or foreign currency.

Alliance for Financial Inclusion (2022), Central bank digital currency – an opportunity for financial inclusion in developing and emerging economies?. The question also arises of whether existing capital flow management measures—such as taxes on purchasing foreign currency—may be circumvented by digital forms of money. Most IMF member countries, particularly emerging markets and lower-income countries, use some form of capital flow management. Existing regulations and implementation practices must evolve so that capital flow management measures remain strong following the introduction of digital money.

If there is any human error, successful cyberattack, or glitch in the system, central banks will lose credibility, private information could be exposed, and the domestic currency could depreciate. Also, as cyberattacks have been increasing and financial institutions are 300 times more likely to be targeted, central banks will face immense pressure to create and maintain secure CBDC technology. Secondly, CBDCs could reduce transaction costs of payments into emerging countries where many citizens rely on remittance inflows. India, Mexico, Philippines, Egypt, and Pakistan—all developing countries—accrue the highest remittance inflows in the world, receiving over 30 percent of global cross-border payments. Additionally, the top 20 emerging markets defined in the Emerging Market’s Institute’s upcoming 2021 report account for over 50 percent of global remittance payments with over $300B in inflows.

As with all financial services organizations that directly interact with a significant portion of the global population, revenue agencies have the opportunity to be a leader in the evolution of money by planning for and engaging with CBDCs now, before they are common currency. Understanding digital currency for revenue agencies is complicated and constantly evolving, requiring engagement with public and private partners. The main motivations for developing the CBDC are related to system stability, the inclusion issue, payment efficiency and safety. There are differences based on the target customers and the degree of development of the country that are relevant to the construction of the optimal strategy for implementing the new technology in the payment system. Most CBDC projects are still in the research stage (102), and only seven organized by the Philippines, Kenya, Denmark, Curacao, Singapore, Ecuador, and Finland have been canceled up to today.

Additionally, in April 2024, Pfizer’s BEQVEZ received FDA approval as a treatment for adults with moderate to severe hemophilia B. Keep up to speed on legal themes and developments through our curated collections of key content. You can browse, search or filter our publications, seminars and webinars, multimedia and collections of curated content from across our global network. Create an account and set your email alert preferences to receive the content relevant to you and your business, at your chosen frequency. For example, retail traders in China have faced more restrictions during the government’s crypto trading crackdown.

A preliminary analysis describes the different projects currently being developed by leading countries worldwide by considering the various stages of development and the target customers (Section 2). A detailed analysis of the primary motivation for using CBDC is presented, starting from the BIS survey results by distinguishing the retail and wholesale sectors and the developed and developing economies (Section 3). The last section summarizes the main results and discusses the open issues for developing the central currency created on the Digital Ledger Technology and blockchain solutions. Private sector innovation in emerging markets has already made a mark in the area of mobile money.

These platforms and currencies will continue to compete to offer central banks and governments decentralized, scalable and secure blockchains on which to implement their CBDCs. The Bahamas, the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and Sweden are also in their pilot phases, and India is scheduling its CBDC for December 2021. Eighty-one countries7, representing more than 90 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP), are currently exploring or have launched some form of digital currency.

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The more successful experiences were related to Jamaica, Bahamas, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria after 2020, which completed the development and pilot stage of the new digital currency. Hence, digital currency started to be used in the country in addition to the standard FIAT currency (see Figure 3). As digitalization continues to impact the future of money and the exchange of value, effective policy and regulation are needed to ensure a stable and equitable financial system. Regional arrangements to settle digital money could proliferate, driven by countries’ desire for autonomy. Such arrangements could become instruments of geopolitical interests and forces—to avoid or impose bilateral sanctions—and could limit currency convertibility. Digital money would also likely increase gross capital flows as transaction costs diminish and financial products become more widely available.