The anticipation for a glamorous November has subsided in the last week or so. Keep this in mind – Bitcoin’s price kept its range-pegged momentum and Ethereum appeared to be following the king’s coin movement. Bitcoin was trading at just under $ 56,000 at press time, while Ethereum slipped below the $ 4,300 mark.

In addition to the waning euphoria, short-term market pressure could also increase due to changed macroeconomic framework conditions. US bond yields in particular have risen sharply in recent weeks. In fact, the two-year bond yield rose from 0.24% in September to nearly 0.60%. Curiously, expectations of a possible rate hike have also risen.

Not to mention, digital assets, especially crypto, are generally perceived as riskier assets. A higher “risk free” rate of return could also redeploy capital in the financial markets, such as from CoinMetrics data. While the majority of the market is riding a wave of volatility, it seems that relative volatility hasn’t really gotten the upper hand in this case.

The volatility is still not high?

The markets looked pretty tumultuous with shaky price action and unexpected drops. Even then, the volatility for both Bitcoin and Ethereum was still relatively low on a historical basis. And far from the highs recorded earlier this year. The same could be seen using daily log returns on a rolling 90 day window.

Source: coin codes

After a lower weekly close, BTC and ETH hit their lower support levels. BTC fell below $ 55,000 while ETH dropped to $ 3980 a few days ago. In particular, BTC’s implied volatility, which represents the market forecast of a likely movement, had risen, signaling higher expected volatility.

However, the realized volatility remains more or less at the same level.

Source: Skew

This is how it could go …

If you look at supply and demand, there are many stablecoins on the exchanges compared to BTC credit. In addition, institutional demand for ETF products has also increased.

On the contrary, $ 200,000 ETH was deposited on central exchanges, which is a short-term bearish tale. Even so, outflows still dominated the two top coin markets.

Also, Bitcoin’s percentage of the exchanges hit 12.4% that month. After almost three and a half years, the key figure fell back to this level. In fact, this all-time low was last reached in February 2018.

However, the recent decline in this metric appears to be a macro-bullish trend that appeared to be making the top coin.

Source: Glassnode

However, the open interest for BTC and ETH has steadily increased and reached new highs last week. In fact, as the futures market looked overly leveraged as people shorted BTC, the market became more susceptible to small price movements. This could increase volatility in the short term.

Even so, the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio (72h MA) reached 91% – An indication that the top ten deposits across all exchanges claimed 91% of the deposit volume in the hourly timeframe. Not to mention, whale occurrences are usually not a good sign of medium-term price action.

Source: CryptoQuant

For Bitcoin, certain metrics seem to be showing weak bullish indicators. This can mark the early stages of bull runs with sustained accumulation.

However, since the price development looks uncertain next to some bearish signals, nothing can be said with certainty at this point in time.

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